How the BDN calls races, and what to expect from Tuesday’s presidential election

PoliticsOur political journalists are based in the Maine State House and have deep source networks across the partisan spectrum in communities all over the state. Their coverage aims to cut through major debates and probe how officials make decisions. Read more Politics coverage here.
The year 2020 brought a strange distinction to the Bangor Daily News, the first U.S. newspaper to call the presidential election for Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump.
That call from our national partners at Decision Desk HQ came the Friday after Election Day, a full day before the Associated Press and major networks. The process also embodies why we began working with them in 2018 to bring you Maine’s election results and interpret them.
To call races, we examine incoming results and compare them with the ballots left to count. When we are confident the leading candidate cannot be overtaken, we call the election. Decision Desk HQ does this by assigning groups of races to panels of experts who know the areas in play.
Being first is great. Being careful and right is far more important. We talked to Drew McCoy, Decision Desk HQ’s president, about everything that goes into it and what to expect on election night with the focus on a few major swing states. Questions and answers are edited for clarity.
BDN: Were you nervous when you made the call in 2020?
McCoy: It was very obvious to us mathematically that once Biden took the lead, was going to keep it and was only going to grow. We knew the numbers. We knew how many votes Biden had, how many votes Trump had, how many votes were left, because they were reporting that [in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania].
We also knew that all of the Republican areas that Trump had done well in, and one were exhausted, and all that was really left was Philadelphia and Allegheny County around Pittsburgh, and a couple of Democrat-leaning counties around Philadelphia. There was no reason that those remaining votes were going to be different.
That’s a pretty straightforward call for us. It happened to be the state that pushed Biden over the line.
BDN: Voting in 2020 was complicated because of the pandemic switch to absentee voting. Is counting this year going to be quicker?
McCoy: That would be the expectation. Especially in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin that everybody’s focused on, they didn’t really have absentee or early voting in any large numbers prior to that. It was a challenge for them. This isn’t the day after that.
I’ve seen people say they think Philadelphia’s going to take five days. I would be surprised. They have more processes in place. They have more people. They have technology.
Anything’s possible. But the secretary of state of Michigan said she expects the state to essentially be done by mid-afternoon [Wednesday]. Wisconsin will just keep going until they’re done. We’ll be waiting for the Milwaukee County absentee drop, which is traditionally the last big pot of votes. It’s one that’s historically Democratic, so margins will matter there.
BDN: So it sounds like you think a presidential call by Wednesday is in the realm of possibility.
McCoy: Depending on how the states break. If we’re getting to the point where the election is going to come down to Arizona and Nevada, that’s going to take days. If the combinations fall — and it could fall either way for either candidate — then Tuesday into Wednesday is certainly a possibility.
BDN: What’s your objective trigger for a call?
Greater than 99 percent certainty. We have some models that we run, but we don’t let machines call races. It’s a combination of those things. Ultimately, it’s people with experience in this.
It’s where the data takes us. It has to be. I don’t know the internal workings of anybody else, but we don’t have a layer of corporate approval. None of our clients get any input on this. They obviously have editorial freedom to take or not take our calls, right? But they’re not telling us about it.
Correction: An earlier version of this report incorrectly stated that the BDN called the 2020 presidential race the Friday before Election Day. It was the Friday after.